2012-02-08
Explanation
This comic presents two satirical flowcharts about how people discuss the economy. The first, "How to Talk About the Economy: A Guide for Elected Officials," reveals the no-win nature of economic prognostication in politics. If a politician said the economy was good and it turned out to be good, they are "forgotten amid the bull market" (nobody gets credit for good times). If they said it was good and it wasn't, they are "a naive imbecile." If they predicted bad times correctly, they're hailed as "a prophet," and if they said "I don't know," the response is "And you expect to get elected?" -- to which the honest politician can only stammer "...y-yes?"
The flowchart shows that politicians are incentivized to make bold negative predictions, since being a correct pessimist is the only path to praise, while honesty and optimism are punished. The second flowchart, "How to Talk About the Economy: A Guide for Media Personalities," is even simpler: it's a single self-referencing loop that says "Make prediction on market trend, wait until true, praise self." This skewers the media habit of making enough predictions that some inevitably come true, then selectively highlighting the hits while ignoring the misses -- a form of survivorship bias that passes for expert commentary.