Explain SMBC — the wiki for Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal

statistical

2018-06-11 View on smbc-comics.com → 1 revision
statistical
Votey panel for statistical
This explanation is incomplete or may contain errors. It was generated by AI and has not yet been reviewed by a human editor.

Explanation

The Joke

The comic shows a woman with glasses confronting a figure who appears to be Jesus Christ. She says to him: "I mean, take a statistical approach here. What's more likely: you're Jesus Christ himself, or you're a guy who's confused." The caption below reads: "There have been no miracles since the creation of modern mathematics."

The joke imagines what would happen if Jesus returned to Earth in an age of statistical reasoning and Bayesian thinking. Rather than accepting a miracle at face value, a modern, scientifically-minded person would apply probability theory: given the base rates, it is far more likely that any given person claiming to be Jesus is simply delusional than that they are actually the Son of God. The caption extends this idea to its logical conclusion -- miracles have ceased not because God stopped performing them, but because modern humans would statistically explain them away.

The Humor

The humor lies in the collision between faith and statistical reasoning. The woman is not being hostile or dismissive -- she is simply applying Bayesian inference, which tells us to weigh the prior probability of an event against the evidence. Since the prior probability of meeting the actual Jesus Christ is astronomically low, while the prior probability of meeting a confused person is quite high, any rational statistician would conclude the man is simply confused. The caption is the real punchline: the dry suggestion that miracles have not stopped happening, but that modern mathematics has made it impossible for anyone to believe in them. It is a joke about how the scientific worldview, for all its power, might be fundamentally incompatible with the miraculous.

References

The comic draws on Bayesian probability and the philosophical problem of miracles, most famously articulated by David Hume in his argument that it is always more rational to disbelieve a miracle report than to accept it, since miracles by definition violate the laws of nature and are therefore maximally improbable.

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